Galway 7:15
The Algohorse model's verdict on this 18-runner race — probabilities, value vs the market, and the standout.
The model makes Goal Exceeded its standout in this 18-runner Galway contest, rating it 46.3% to place and 18.7% to win. But it's a competitive heat: only 2.3999999999999986 points cover the front two, and the model's shortlist to place is tight — Goal Exceeded (46.3%), Eddie G (43.9%), Go Athletico (27.3%). There's value at the head of the market too: at this morning's 6.6 the price implies only 15.2%, so the model sees 3.5 points of edge on the morning line. Prices move — CLV comes from taking them early. The biggest overlay against the morning line is Eddie G at 5.5 — 4.2 points of value on the model's read of this morning's price, one for the each-way shortlist. In a field this size, extra-place terms come into play — Send Harry rates best on that angle.