Galway 5:45

The model makes Fort Randall its standout in this 23-runner Galway contest, rating it 42.2% to place and 20.4% to win. Chief danger is Giant Haystacks, which the model rates 35.2% to place — respected, but a clear step behind the top pick. There's value at the head of the market too: at this morning's 8.2 the price implies only 12.2%, so the model sees 8.2 points of edge on the morning line. Prices move — CLV comes from taking them early. In a field this size, extra-place terms come into play — Tell Us This rates best on that angle.