Goodwood 5:20

The model makes Crazee Icon its standout in this 15-runner Goodwood contest, rating it 51.7% to place and 18.6% to win. Chief danger is Annastarzy, which the model rates 47.5% to place — respected, but a clear step behind the top pick. There's value at the head of the market too: at this morning's 7.0 the price implies only 14.3%, so the model sees 4.3 points of edge on the morning line. Prices move — CLV comes from taking them early. The biggest overlay against the morning line is Annastarzy at 5.7 — 4.5 points of value on the model's read of this morning's price, one for the each-way shortlist.