Goodwood 4:45
The Algohorse model's verdict on this 16-runner race — probabilities, value vs the market, and the standout.
The model makes Savage Mariner its standout in this 16-runner Goodwood contest, rating it 59.3% to place and 18.3% to win. It stands clearly clear of the field on the model's numbers — 12.799999999999997 points ahead of Dorigo (46.5%), so this reads as a strong, one-horse race rather than a puzzle. There's value at the head of the market too: at this morning's 6.8 the price implies only 14.7%, so the model sees 3.6 points of edge on the morning line. Prices move — CLV comes from taking them early. The biggest overlay against the morning line is Dorigo at 13.0 — 7.3 points of value on the model's read of this morning's price, one for the each-way shortlist. In a field this size, extra-place terms come into play — Ard As A Rock rates best on that angle.