Goodwood 4:10

The model makes Lexington Blitz its standout in this 24-runner Goodwood contest, rating it 33.9% to place and 15.2% to win. Chief danger is Twilight Calls, which the model rates 28.2% to place — respected, but a clear step behind the top pick. There's value at the head of the market too: at this morning's 8.8 the price implies only 11.4%, so the model sees 3.8 points of edge on the morning line. Prices move — CLV comes from taking them early. In a field this size, extra-place terms come into play — Vintage Clarets rates best on that angle.