Goodwood 3:00
The Algohorse model's verdict on this 8-runner race — probabilities, value vs the market, and the standout.
The model makes Lake Forest its standout in this 8-runner Goodwood contest, rating it 78.2% to place and 45.6% to win. It stands clearly clear of the field on the model's numbers — 31.700000000000003 points ahead of Qirat (46.5%), so this reads as a strong, one-horse race rather than a puzzle. There's value at the head of the market too: at this morning's 2.36 the price implies only 42.4%, so the model sees 3.2 points of edge on the morning line. Prices move — CLV comes from taking them early. The biggest overlay against the morning line is Rogue Diplomat at 19.0 — 3.3 points of value on the model's read of this morning's price, one for the each-way shortlist. The published Algohorse selection is Lake Forest (SPECULATIVE), to be backed place.