Goodwood 1:50
The Algohorse model's verdict on this 18-runner race — probabilities, value vs the market, and the standout.
The model makes Diego El Queso its standout in this 18-runner Goodwood contest, rating it 28.7% to place and 11.8% to win. But it's a competitive heat: only 3.3000000000000007 points cover the front two, and the model's shortlist to place is tight — Diego El Queso (28.7%), Yabher (25.4%), Tony Montana (23.9%). On price, though, the morning market is shorter than the model (13.9% implied at 7.2) — the fancied runner looks fully priced this morning, so any value lies elsewhere in the race. The biggest overlay against the morning line is Rathgar at 21.0 — 3.0 points of value on the model's read of this morning's price, one for the each-way shortlist. In a field this size, extra-place terms come into play — Torito rates best on that angle.