Ffos Las 6:00

The model makes Jazzy Bay its standout in this 10-runner Ffos Las contest, rating it 58.7% to place and 25.9% to win. Chief danger is Ariane Sky, which the model rates 50.1% to place — respected, but a clear step behind the top pick. There's value at the head of the market too: at this morning's 5.5 the price implies only 18.2%, so the model sees 7.7 points of edge on the morning line. Prices move — CLV comes from taking them early.