Beverley 3:20

The model makes Apulia Bay its standout in this 4-runner Beverley contest, rating it 38.0% to place and 54.6% to win. It stands clearly clear of the field on the model's numbers — 12.3 points ahead of Romanza (25.7%), so this reads as a strong, one-horse race rather than a puzzle. There's value at the head of the market too: at this morning's 2.52 the price implies only 39.7%, so the model sees 14.9 points of edge on the morning line. Prices move — CLV comes from taking them early.