Picking winners is only half the job. How much you stake — and how you adjust it — decides whether a real edge turns into steady growth or a blown bank. Here are the main approaches, and the trade-offs.
1. Level stakes
The same amount on every bet (say 1 point per selection). Simple, transparent, and the fairest way to measure a tipping record — which is why ROI is usually quoted at level stakes. Downside: it ignores how confident you are in each bet.
2. Percentage of bank
Stake a fixed percentage of your current bankroll (e.g. 2%). Stakes shrink after losses and grow after wins, which protects you in downswings and compounds in upswings. A sensible default for most punters.
3. Kelly staking
The Kelly criterion sizes each bet by your estimated edge and the odds, maximising long-run growth. It's mathematically optimal — but brutal in practice: it assumes your probabilities are exactly right, and full Kelly produces wild swings. Most serious bettors use fractional Kelly (a quarter or half), trading a little growth for far less volatility.
Which should you use?
- Judging a record: level stakes — it can't be gamed.
- Everyday betting: percentage-of-bank for simple, robust discipline.
- Confident in your probabilities: fractional Kelly, never full.
The rule that beats all of them
No staking plan turns a losing process into a winning one — and none should ever tempt you past what you can afford to lose. Stake responsibly; see our responsible gambling guidance.